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نمذجة بعض الظواهر المناخية بنماذج VARMA
Other Title(s)
Modeling some weather phenomena by Vector ARMA
Joint Authors
حسناء أحمد إسماعيل
البدراني، ظافر رمضان مطر
Source
المجلة العراقية للعلوم الإحصائية
Issue
Vol. 15, Issue 27 (31 Dec. 2018), pp.59-82, 24 p.
Publisher
University of Mosul College of Computer Science and Mathematics
Publication Date
2018-12-31
Country of Publication
Iraq
No. of Pages
24
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
It is well known that employing the overlapping and interlocking relations among multiple phenomena offers modeling that is more accurate than these which are obtained by analyze each phenomena separately.
In this research interrelationship for three phenomena that appear in the Meteorology analyzed which are monthly averages for the maximum temperatures, monthly averages for minimum temperatures and monthly averages for evaporation, through a system of three equations by using the Vector ARMA Model.
For the purpose of analysis, we used monthly data for the period from January 1981 to December 2010 while keeping the last ten months of 2010 out of the sample for the purposes of comparison within predictions that are obtained .
We then found the best model for prediction upon MSE criterion.
and it was conduced that the vector ARIMA(1,0,0)*(0,1,1)12 was the best to represent the data upon SIC criteria.
We used package software SCA which is specialized in the field of time series to obtain the results of the application.
American Psychological Association (APA)
حسناء أحمد إسماعيل والبدراني، ظافر رمضان مطر. 2018. نمذجة بعض الظواهر المناخية بنماذج VARMA. المجلة العراقية للعلوم الإحصائية،مج. 15، ع. 27، ص ص. 59-82.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-853638
Modern Language Association (MLA)
حسناء أحمد إسماعيل والبدراني، ظافر رمضان مطر. نمذجة بعض الظواهر المناخية بنماذج VARMA. المجلة العراقية للعلوم الإحصائية مج. 15، ع. 27 (2018)، ص ص. 59-82.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-853638
American Medical Association (AMA)
حسناء أحمد إسماعيل والبدراني، ظافر رمضان مطر. نمذجة بعض الظواهر المناخية بنماذج VARMA. المجلة العراقية للعلوم الإحصائية. 2018. مج. 15، ع. 27، ص ص. 59-82.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-853638
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
Arabic
Notes
يتضمن مراجع ببليوجرافية : ص. 81-82
Record ID
BIM-853638