اختلال سعر الصرف الحقيقي للدينار الجزائري عن مستواه التوازني (1980-2015)‎

Abstract EN

This paper examines the real exchange rate's behavior in Algeria in an attempt to estimate the misalignement of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level in Algeria during the period 1980-2015.To do this, we first used the co-integration method in order to see whether there is a long run relationship between the ERER and its fundamentals and our findings showed that there are 02 cointegration's vectors.

The estimation of the regression equation for the long term showed that every increase of 01% in productivity differences, terms of trade, openness of trade, government spendingwould lead to a decline in the equilibrium real exchange rate by 2.80%, 1.77%, 4.74%, and 3.20% respectively.

While every increase of 01% in the oil's real price will increase the equilibrium real exchange rate by 02.68%.

Secondly, we determined the misalignement of real exchange rate of the Dinar from its equilibrium value, which enabled us to discover and analyze the imbalances in the national currency, which confirms that the exchange policy adopted in Algeria led to a significant imbalance in the real exchange rate, causing negative effects on the Algerian economy