تقييم المشاريع الاستثمارية في ظل ظروف اللاتأكد و المخاطرة : أسلوب تحليل الحساسية : دراسة مشروع إنتاج زيت الزيتون ولاية سوق أهراس

Abstract EN

This study aims to evaluate a project producing olive oil, which is one of the projects funded by the national agency for support of youth employment-the state of souk ahras-Algeria, using sensitivity analysis method in order to include the risk element.

the study concluded that the project is very sensitive to changes in the discount rate, investment cost, expected net cash flows and delay in implementation (key factors), the results indicate that an increase of 30% in the discount rate will lead to a negative net present value and only an increase of 10% in investment cost or a decrease of 10% in the expected cash flows and a delay of only one year will also make the project not feasible.

these results were confirmed by calculating sensitivity index indicating the high risk associated with these factors.