ما الذي يقود سعر النفط الخام ؟ : تحليل للمحددات و العوامل المسببة للصدمات

Abstract EN

Since the 1970s, the oil price has become very volatile, and characterized by uncertainties about its trajectories.

In this paper we try to reconsidering the real reasons behind the most important oil shocks, through analyzing the fundamentals factors: demand and supply, and other factors that are likely to have contributed to some shocks: financial speculation; speculation in the physical market; and inventories, through analyzing the data of these factors and tracking the synchronization of the changes that occurred in it with changes in the price, and using a survey of the results and opinions of the literatures.

We found that supply shocks affect oil price, but, if demand grows at a relatively continuous and steady rate.

It cannot be said that supply or demand is the main determinant.

But the price of oil is determined by the interaction of both supply and demand forces as other prices of other commodities.

Other factors can have an indirect effect on price, contributing to the exacerbation of some shocks, not as a new independent factor but, through their impact on supply and demand.