استخدام طرق تقدير النماذج السكانية في التنبؤ بإعداد المهاجرين

Abstract EN

Migration is one of the most important components of the equivalence of population balance because it has a significant impact on the exchange, where we note that the migration is an influx factor is an increase, but emigration is a factor of decrease, and the main objective of this study is to use methods of estimating population models to see the changes that in the number of migrants around the world in different continents.

demographic characteristics, which were calculated as a descriptive measure, were also used as indicators to determine the effect of these characteristics on the methods used in estimating، the forward method, reverse method, and the average method of estimation were used to compare and determine which was better in the estimation process.

the study found that the estimation in the forward method is the best in terms of estimating the survival rate.

in terms of estimating the net migration, the reverse method is the best.

the study recommended that using other methods in estimating population models other than the methods used and applying other data in the methods used and comparing them.