دراسة قياسية لمححدات التضخم في الجزائر 1980-2016

Abstract EN

The aim of this paper is to Describe the phenomenon of inflation in Algeria and determine its properties and structure over time, through a review of some economic theories on inflation, and knowledge of the most important macroeconomic variables that cause inflation, and translate it into quantitative model reflects the interactions between the components, and can be used in the process of future Prospective and evaluation of alternatives available to decisionmakers.

In this regard, the analysis was based in the applied side on quarterly time series of the Algerian economy (1980-2010), using Cointegration Approach and Error Correction Model.

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The results presented in this paper indicate that national income, output gap, interest rate, exchange rate and prices of imported foreign goods, public debt, wages, and unemployment are the main determinants of inflation in Algeria in the long run.

In contrast, It is evident that The level of prices in the previous period, budget deficit, and money supply have no statistically significant effect on inflation.

In the short term, we find that inflation is affected by both: the growth of national income, the growth of the money supply, exchange rate fluctuations, fluctuations in interest rates, wage growth, price index of the previous period