قياس و تحليل أثار صدمات السياسة النقدية على النمو الاقتصادي باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي (VAR)‎ للفترة من (2000-2016)‎

Abstract EN

This study sought to identify the effects of ; monetary policy shocks on economic growth in Algeria using the vector auto regression model (VAR) and quarterly data covering the first trimester from 2000 to the fourth ( trimester of 2016, which relates to the following variables: Gross domestic product (GDP), monetary mass, Nominal interest rate, Exchange rate and volume of loans directed to the economy.

The results of the response Functionsanalysi s indicated that a random shock in both the monetary mass and loans directed at the economy by one standard deviation would always have a positive effect on gross domestic product (GDP).

An unexpected shock in the nominal interest rate by one standard deviation will have a negative impact on GDP in the short and long term, in contrast, a random shock in the exchange rate by one standard deviation would have a positive effect on GDP in the short term and the impact of the shock would then fade in the medium term and then turn negative in the long term.