نمذجة و تحليل بعض دوال الاقتصاد الكلي في العراق باستعمال أنموذج الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الموزع (ARDL)‎ Autoregressive distributed lag model للمدة من (1990-2015)‎

Abstract EN

The Iraqi economy enjoys great advantages and capabilities, which have not benefited from most of these advantages and potentials, but only to benefit from the oil wealth, which has deepened the character of the rent in the economy and made the economy highly impacted by the shocks that occur in this area.

n the decade of the nineties and after the decline of oil revenues, the state resorted to the new cash issue to finance spending and this was reflected in the high levels of inflation significantly after after the increase in the flow of oil revenues, which have not been used in the development of economic sectors other than oil, but was wasted large sums of money interspersed with deals A large corruption that prevented the achievement of the desired goals.

Using the ARDL model we found that variable oil prices have the most impact on GDP with a lower role for both consumption and investment, and all show a longterm relationship between independent macroeconomic variables and dependent function variables (GDP, Ct, CPI).

The speed of adjustment was relatively fast in the output function and was relatively slow in both consumption and inflation.