تقدير دوال الطلب على الصادرات المصرية من العنب باستخدام نموذج المشاركة السوقية

Abstract EN

The main objective of this research is to try to improve the competitiveness and increase export efficiency of Egyptian grapes exports during the period (2000-2016).

To achieve this objective, the following subobjectives were studied: 1- Studying the relative importance of grape exports for fruit exports, agricultural exports, 2 - The study of the development of the quantity, value and export prices of grape exports, 3 - Measuring the indicators of the export efficiency of Egyptian exports of grapes, (Efficiency of the performance of export operations - The degree of economic openness - The coefficient of comparative advantage phenomenon - Instability coefficient - Gini coefficient of quantity and value of exports to (4) Estimating the external demand for Egyptian grape exports using the market participation model.

The research relied on the published and unpublished secondary data issued by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, the computer database of the system, Agriculture, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), foreign trade publications, and some previous studies in this field.

To achieve the objectives of the research, statistical, economic and statistical methods of analysis were used by estimating general trend patterns Linear model for each of the cultivated area, production and productivity, quantity and value and export prices, and adopted economic analysis at the expense of some indicators which the most important of the instability coefficient, the calculation of the concentration geographical coefficient (Gini) coefficient, was used as a form of market participation to estimate the demand for grape exports function.

The main findings of the study were: The percentage of Egypt's exports of grapes from fruit exports continued to rise.

The relative importance of this period reached about 12.25%.

The lowest value of the relative importance in 2001 was 0.28%.

The percentage of Egypt's exports of grapes for agricultural exports increased continuously.

The relative importance of this period was about 4.82%.

The relative importance of this year was 0.29%.

The relative importance in 2008 was 12.94%.

Also, the percentage of Egypt's exports of grapes for total exports in Irvine The relative importance of this period was about 048%.

The lowest value for the relative importance in 2001 was 0.03% and the relative importance of 2016 was 1.189%.

The estimation of export efficiency indicators for grapes during the study period shows that the degree of economic openness The efficiency of export operations for grapes was estimated at 0.05% for the average period, and the maximum efficiency rate in 2009 was estimated at about 0.1090%, while the percentage of the grapes was 0.0978% for the average period, reaching a maximum of 0.2182% in 2009, While the lowest rate of efficiency in 2000 was estimated at about 0.0012%, and it turned out that Mato The coefficient of competitiveness of Egyptian exports of grapes during the study period was 4.13 and its value ranged between a minimum of 2.14 in 2012 and a maximum of 2016 in 2016.

The results of the estimation of the demand function using the market participation model showed that the value of the regression coefficient The estimated model for the State of Kuwait and Italy of the UAE was -1.103, - 0.184, -0.123.

This confirms an inverse relationship between the relative price of imports and the market share of grapes.

This is consistent with the economic theory.

The price elasticity of the same countries is -0.31, -0.14, 0.19 (Inelastic demand), ie, the higher the relative price of exports, the lower the In the market share of grape exports.

This means that there is a possibility of increasing the export price of Kuwait, Italy and the UAE, thus increasing the export yield of grapes, while the results in the same table showed that the regression coefficient in the estimated model for the UK and Belgium was 0.104, 0.425 This confirms the existence of a positive relationship between the relative price of imports and the market share of grapes, which may be due to the non-saturation of the markets of the grapes and the increase in domestic demand.