Iraq’s security dilemma in the post 2003 era

Abstract EN

Today, Iraq is facing serious threats on different sectors and levels.

On the basis of a number of theories within the field of political science, this research attempts to explain and analyze these threats and their eventual developments.

Most important of these theories is the „Theory of Security Complex‟ developed by Copenhagen School in Security Studies.

Copenhagen School adopts a wide approach of security based on the fact that many objects, beside political regimes and states, can be threatened and these threats can lead to destabilizing the entire country or region.

These objects could be economic, societal or environmental .

Unlike the realist school in international relations, Copenhagen School adds a third level of analysis to the two levels (unit and system) which dominated the realists‟ analysis under the Cold War.

That is, according to Copenhagen School, the world can be divided into many regions and each of these regions differs from the others regarding the distribution of power and wealth, and then has its own security dilemma .

The regional security dilemma could be defined as a set of units (be they states or other political entities) interplaying with one another in such a manner that the security of each of them cannot be understood or analyzed apart from the security of the others.

Power distribution and the patterns of amity/enmity are the main responsible variables for the dynamic of the regional security complex .

Taking into account the various threats, Iraq faces today, and the high number of domestic, regional and global actors who influence its security, Copenhagen School provides a useful theoretical framework for analyzing these threats.

The research concludes that Iraq is seriously threatened politically, military, economically, societally and environmentally, and these threats are caused by actors operating on domestic, regional and global levels.

It is assumed that the ethnic and sectarian divisions inside the Iraqi society and the many bloody conflicts which have taken place among its ethnic groups proved that any Islamic regime cannot provide security and stability for Iraq.

A secular regime is the best option for ruling the country.

The real democracy which based on a parliamentary majority, not a compatible one based on power-sharing principle, is required for Iraq to resolve its conflicts.