دراسة تحليلية للفجوة الغذائية من الزيوت في مصر

Abstract EN

Food oil crops and their products are considered to be important strategic commodities in the national economy in general and agricultural in particular as they are one of the three main commodity groups in terms of the value of imports: wheat, oil crops and sugar crops.

In spite of the importance of these crops, their oil products did not achieve the desired contribution in raising the self-sufficiency rates due to the limited area cultivated due to the fierce competition with other strategic crops and the low yield of oil crops, In the absence of sufficient local production to meet the increasing demand for oils, where the average volume of domestic production and consumption of oils by 177.06 and 1003.37 thousand tons, respectively, resulting in a food gap estimated at 826.31 thousand tons, representing about 82, 36% during the period (2000-20) 15).

The self-sufficiency rate was 17.64%, which led to external dependence on filling the oil food gap, which increased the burden on the balance of payments and the Egyptian trade balance.

The results of the study showed that the average domestic production of edible oils during the period (2000-2015) reached 177.06 thousand tons.

The average per capita consumption during the study period was about 13.12 kg / year.

The average domestic consumption amounted to about 1003.37 The average size of the food gap during the study period was 826.31 thousand tons, while the average self-sufficiency during the study period was about 17.64%.

In estimating the general time trend equation for the development of the previous study variables, Per capita consumption, domestic consumption, food gap size At a statistically significant annual rate, while the self-sufficiency rate declined at a statistically significant annual rate.

Based on the results of the strategic stock assessment and the food security coefficient of edible oils in Egypt, it was found that the strategic stock of vegetable oil in Egypt is 438.25 thousand tons, enough to cover domestic consumption for a period of about 77.54 days (2.58 months) Lack of adequate strategic stocks of edible oils in Egypt, due to the fact that the amount of the deficit is greater than the surplus quantity, which requires the state to work to provide strategic stocks of food oils to achieve the concept of food security.

The food security of food oils was estimated at 0.43, indicating the relative increase in the value of the food security index of edible vegetable oils due to the quantity of imports rather than the domestic production of oils.

The results of the prediction of the future values of production, consumption and size of the gap and the self-sufficiency rate of edible oils in Egypt in 2022 indicate that it is expected to reach about 180,75, 2309,03, 2084,89 thousand tons and 10.18% respectively, Food gap and the continued low self-sufficiency rate due to the inability of local production to meet increasing consumer needs