أثر سياسة تغيير قيمة العملة و شكلها في علاج الأزمة المالية : دراسة قياسية تحليلية على الاقتصاد الليبي

Abstract EN

The aim of this paper is to shed light on the feasibility of the monetary authority to reduce the assumed value of the national currency to determine the effectiveness of this policy in solving the financial and economic crisis affecting the Libyan economy by conducting a standard analysis and economic interpretation of the results and discuss it by measuring and analyzing the impact of changing the exchange rate of the Libyan dinar to the US dollar (EXR) based on some of the macroeconomic variables of the national economy which are closely linked to the financial and economic crisis, which are the foreign trade sector in both exports (EX), imports (IM), money supply (MS1) and inflation rate (INF), in addition to the inclusion of a dummy variable for both exports and imports, in order to measure the political and security crises experienced by Libya during the study period, which resulted to have an impact on the foreign trade sector of the Libyan economy, including the period of the economic siege imposed on Libya by the United States and the United Nations during the nineties, the events of the Libyan revolution on 2011 and the ongoing security and political situation from 2013 to 2016.

The researchers used EViews, a statistical program specialized in econometrics and used the Time Series Analysis of the VAR model to analyze Granger Causality's to detect the Impulse Responses and Variance Decompositions in case of impulse or change in the standard model of the study.

The paper also aimed at presenting a proposal to solve the liquidity crisis in Libya by following the policy of changing look the local currency by withdrawing the paper currency in circulation and replacing it with a new currency distributed to the citizens in stages as an alternative to the devaluation policy by highlighting the most important positive expected to be achieved by the implementation of such a policy and the presentation of the disadvantages and challenges and their impact in addressing the crisis of liquidity in the national economy