التنبؤ بتقدير و تحليل العوامل المعززة في هجرة الأطباء السودانيين للخارج للفترة من (2008-2018 م)‎ باستخدام منهجية بوكس-جينكنز

Abstract EN

This study deals with Box-Jenkins methodology for predicting the number of migrant Sudanese doctors.

It based on a three times a year data series during the period 2008-2018.

Throughout the diagram and Augmented Dickey Fuller test, it was clear the series was not stationary but it was at the first difference.

However, a comparison of different models was made with the proposed one showed that ARIMA (3, 1, 11) was the appropriate one after passing the examination and diagnostic tests.

Thereafter, the model was used to predict the number of migrant Sudanese doctors for the period (2019-2024).

The study concluded that the results of the proposed model were to be adopted to predict the number of migrant Sudanese doctors, along with adopting other forecasting models and compare their results with ARIMA models.