أثر تغيرات أسعار النفط على سعر الصرف الحقيقي للدينار الجزائري : دراسة قياسية على الجزائر للفترة 1970-2014

Abstract EN

The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of oil prices fluctuation on the Algerian real exchange rate ,through an empirical analysis using a VAR Model (Vector Auto regression) based on annual data covering 1970-2014 period, Results show that a cointegration relationship is not detected between the oil and Real exchange rate in Algeria.

However, the estimation of a VAR model indicates that a causal relationship in the direction of oil price affecting the real exchange rate of the Algerian dinar in the short time, For a structural shock in oil prices indicates an inverse relationship, ie, the 1% increase in oil prices would tend to depreciate the real exchange rate of the Algerian dinar by nearly 0.025%.