قياس و تحليل التأثيرات الديناميكية للسياسة المالية في الناتج المحلي الاجمالي : الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية حالة دراسية للمدة 1990-2017

Abstract EN

The study examined the measurement and analysis of the dynamic effects of fiscal policy instruments on output in the US economy for the period 1990-2017.

Financial policies aim to achieve stable levels of unemployment, prices and economic growth, depending on the use and guidance of the appropriate tool for this goal.

The research started from the hypothesis that the guidance of fiscal policy instruments in accordance with their possible effects to achieve the objectives in the short and long term based on the level of natural output in the economy, as well as the appropriate mix of monetary policy, will make them more effective in addressing the problems of the local economy, Economic growth.

The importance of research is to illustrate the dynamic effects of fiscal policy instruments on GDP in the US economy.

The research was based on the method of inductive analysis by analyzing the chronological development of the data of the search variables for a given time series, and then extrapolating the reality and analysis of the economic phenomena and their development during the research period, and then devising the resulting economic effects.

To measure the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on output, the ARDL model was used, ie the self-regression of distributed distributions.

One of the main findings of the research, according to the short term, is that the changes in government expenditures have a negative effect.

The increase in government spending in the short term can cause competition of the private sector and thus reduce the gross domestic product.

It is clear that the increase in tax has a negative negative effect in the short term, as taxes will inhibit the economic incentive of individuals and thus negatively affect output.

In the long term, it is clear that an increase in government expenditures will have a positive effect on output over the long term, since the benefits of public projects may be complementary to private sector activity.