تحليل اتجاه الجفاف المناخي الفصلي في العراق خلال المدة (1952-2017)‎

Abstract EN

This research assesses long-term seasonal changes in climate drought over Iraq during the period 1952-2017.

This research employs monthly precipitation data from 15 meteorological stations spanning the main climatic regions across Iraq.

Drought was quantified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (S.P.I) and the Percent Normal Index (P.N.I).

Extents to compare changes by seasonal tracking (fall, winter, spring).

The time series were used in both the actual and the moving averages, and the quantitative trend test used the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (M-K) statistic to assess change in the SPI time series and their statistical significance.

The results of the study showed a change in the seasonal rainfall system in the seasonal and reflective trends in the years of humidity and years of drought.

The winter and spring seasons indicated that 50-33% of the rainy season indicated a trend towards increasing drought years in a period of transition from wet years to recording the highest droughts The results of the Men Kendell test showed that they were morally significant for the drier stations.

In contrast, wet seasons were found during the autumn season (17%) of the season, but this increase in humidity is not significant in all stations, do not follow a trend Intuitive increase.

Spatially, stations that record the highest rainfall totals experiences stronger increase in drought conditions and vice versa.

Overall, results with this study stress the importance of a detailed spatial and temporal assessment of hydrological drought in Iraq.

The strong temporal and spatial variability of drought over Iraq should be taken into consideration in drought mitigation and management plans.

through ways of adaptation for water resources development, and agriculture.