التنبؤ بحجم عرض العمل في الجزائر باستخدام الطرق الإحصائية المفاضلة بين طريقتي سلاسل-ماركوف Markov Chaines و التمهيد الأسي Exponential Smoothing

Abstract EN

The purpose of this study was to try to model the series of job offers in Algeria over the period 1990-2018 on the basis of the statistical approach, without it being necessary to know the explanatory variables affecting the latter.

, But only from the information available in the past of this series, the objective is to try to control this phenomenon in order to predict its future values.

To achieve this objective, Markov chain and exponential smoothing methodologies were applied, the main results of which are summarized as follows: - Analysis of the labor market in Algeria shows that the highest percentage of total employment each year is made up of temporary (non-permanent, i.e.

contract) jobs, which is one of the main reasons other than the large labor supply associated with the high unemployment rate in country; - Most of the indicators indicate the capacity of the Markov chains to predict the labor supply in Algeria compared to the Exponential Smoothing method.

- According to the Markov series forecasting methodology, the predictive values of future job offers forecast for the next five years (until 2023) are respectively: 1.

7655, 1.8205, 1.8602, 1, 8888 and 1.9095 million individuals.

- The actual or estimated results of the job offer in Algeria confirm the fact that there is a huge demand compared to the demand for work recorded during the study period.