أثر الزيادة السكانية المتسارعة على التنمية المستدامة في مصر خلال الفترة (1977-2018)‎

Abstract EN

This study deals with overpopulation as one of the thorny and more serious problems facing the Egyptian economy, because it impedes the development process in all areas.

Such increase is a danger to production rates and would be inconsistent with consumption rates.

Hence, the problem of the study lies in studying the impact of the rapid or steady population increase on sustainable development in Egypt during the period from 1977 to 2018.

The deductive analysis method was used to review the theoretical framework of the effect of the rapid population increase on sustainable development in terms of the economic and environmental effects of the steady population increase with regard to the consumption of natural resources and the relationship between population growth and development.

Also, the inductive analysis method was employed in designing a standard model suitable for testing the validity of the research hypotheses upon which the research builds. 
The study was divided into four main sections; the first section deals with the theoretical framework of the effect of overpopulation on sustainable development.

The second section deals with the economic consequences of the rapid population growth in Egypt during the period under study.

The third section tackles the relationship between population growth rates and economic variables related to sustainable development by designing a suitable standard model to test the validity of research hypotheses.

Finally, the fourth section deals with the findings and recommendations.

From the reality of the standard model the study has reached a number of results, including the presence of a positive effect of the changes in the population growth rate on the unemployment rate, which leads to the exacerbation of the unemployment problem.

Moreover, the increase in the population growth rate leads to a decrease in the total savings in Egypt starting from the third year.

This negative impact continues in the remaining years of the time period under study.

Further, the negative impact of the increase in the population growth rate in Egypt is greater on the current account compared to the growth rate of the gross domestic product at constant prices.

The study has come up with a number of recommendations, the most important of which are: the need of the government to diversify its sources of income and the sources of gross domestic product.

Furthermore, both the Private Sector and small and medium enterprises need to be encouraged, as this is the optimal solution for creating more sustainable job opportunities.

In addition, spending in the population field needs to be considered an essential part of the state's investments that the society must provide.

Also, public spending on education, health and culture has to be increased, and the society, on the other hand, needs to adopt an ambitious family planning program within the framework of comprehensive development programs.