Hydrological Design of Nonstationary Flood Extremes and Durations in Wujiang River, South China: Changing Properties, Causes, and Impacts

الملخص EN

The flood-duration-frequency (QDF) analysis is performed using annual maximum streamflow series of 1–10 day durations observed at Pingshi and Lishi stations in southern China.

The trends and change point of annual maximum flood flow and flood duration are also investigated by statistical tests.

The results indicate that (1) the annual maximum flood flow only has a marginally increasing trend, whereas the flood duration exhibits a significant decreasing trend at the 0.10 significant level.

The change point for the annual maximum flood flow series was found in 1991 and after which the mean maximum flood flow increased by 45.26%.

(2) The period after 1991 is characterized by frequent and shorter duration floods due to increased rainstorm.

However, land use change in the basin was found intensifying the increased tendency of annual maximum flow after 1991.

And (3) under nonstationary environmental conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted.

The impacts on curve fitting of flood series showed an overall change of upper tail from “gentle” to “steep,” and the design flood magnitude became larger.

Therefore, a nonstationary frequency analysis taking account of change point in the data series is highly recommended for future studies.