Intelligent Optimized Combined Model Based on GARCH and SVM for Forecasting Electricity Price of New South Wales, Australia
المؤلفون المشاركون
Dong, Yao
Li, Caihong
Yang, Yi
Chen, Yanhua
المصدر
العدد
المجلد 2014، العدد 2014 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2014)، ص ص. 1-9، 9ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2014-04-06
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
9
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Daily electricity price forecasting plays an essential role in electrical power system operation and planning.
The accuracy of forecasting electricity price can ensure that consumers minimize their electricity costs and make producers maximize their profits and avoid volatility.
However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on other commodities and there is a very complicated randomization in its evolution process.
Therefore, in recent years, although large number of forecasting methods have been proposed and researched in this domain, it is very difficult to forecast electricity price with only one traditional model for different behaviors of electricity price.
In this paper, we propose an optimized combined forecasting model by ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO) based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model and support vector machine (SVM) to improve the forecasting accuracy.
First, both GARCH model and SVM are developed to forecast short-term electricity price of New South Wales in Australia.
Then, ACO algorithm is applied to determine the weight coefficients.
Finally, the forecasting errors by three models are analyzed and compared.
The experiment results demonstrate that the combined model makes accuracy higher than the single models.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Yang, Yi& Dong, Yao& Chen, Yanhua& Li, Caihong. 2014. Intelligent Optimized Combined Model Based on GARCH and SVM for Forecasting Electricity Price of New South Wales, Australia. Abstract and Applied Analysis،Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1014114
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Yang, Yi…[et al.]. Intelligent Optimized Combined Model Based on GARCH and SVM for Forecasting Electricity Price of New South Wales, Australia. Abstract and Applied Analysis No. 2014 (2014), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1014114
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Yang, Yi& Dong, Yao& Chen, Yanhua& Li, Caihong. Intelligent Optimized Combined Model Based on GARCH and SVM for Forecasting Electricity Price of New South Wales, Australia. Abstract and Applied Analysis. 2014. Vol. 2014, no. 2014, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1014114
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1014114
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر