التنبؤ بمعدلات التضخم في الجزائر : باستخدام منهجية بوكس جينكينز

الملخص EN

This study aims to analyze the monthly data of inflation rates in Algeria during the extended period from 01 / 2013 to 01 / 2020 with 85 views using the seasonal time series models.

By applying the Box–Jenkins method, the results indicated that the appropriate model for representing the data of the phenomenon under study was the double seasonal model, SARIMA (3, 0, 7) x (1, 1, 2) 12.

The validity of this model in addition to its effectiveness in short-term forecasting were confirmed.

Finally, the monthly inflation rates for the period 02-2020 to 12-2021 were forecast.