Global Dynamics of Infectious Disease with Arbitrary Distributed Infectious Period on Complex Networks

الملخص EN

Most of the current epidemic models assume that the infectious period follows an exponential distribution.

However, due to individual heterogeneity and epidemic diversity, these models fail to describe the distribution of infectious periods precisely.

We establish a SIS epidemic model with multistaged progression of infectious periods on complex networks, which can be used to characterize arbitrary distributions of infectious periods of the individuals.

By using mathematical analysis, the basic reproduction number R0 for the model is derived.

We verify that the R0 depends on the average distributions of infection periods for different types of infective individuals, which extend the general theory obtained from the single infectious period epidemic models.

It is proved that if R0<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; otherwise the unique endemic equilibrium exists such that it is globally asymptotically attractive.

Finally numerical simulations hold for the validity of our theoretical results is given.