مستقبل الأزمة الليبية : دراسة استشرافية من خلال تقنية التحليل المورفولوجي

الملخص EN

The Libyan crisis is currently one of the most sensitive regional crises, whether at the Arab or African level, and since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya in 2011, the Libyan state has not known a stable form of its political system as a legal crisis erupted that was the basis for a deep political crisis that later developed into a military conflict Its intensity varies from one period to another, and all of that is affected by regional and international interventions and the inability to control the supply of weapons despite the numerous UN resolutions as well as the outcomes of international conferences.

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However, the main purpose of this study is not to analyze the current reality of the Libyan crisis by using a specific theoretical framework, whether it relates to theories of international relations or tools and methods of conflict analysis, which have a large knowledge balance that can be used to analyze the interactions of the Libyan crisis, but the primary purpose is related to employment The field of future studies, specifically with regard to one of the most prominent techniques used in the field of foresight, which is the morphological analysis technique to anticipate the future of this crisis