تقدير أثر السياسات الاحترازية الكلية على الائتمان المصرفي في مصر : دراسة قياسية

الملخص EN

The occurrence of the global financial crisis 2007/2008 has demonstrated the importance and even the necessity of Macroprudential Policies, through a specific framework and tools that play an important role in prudence and caution, and even work to reduce the possibility of future economic imbalances.

In the period of time after the crisis occurred, many countries sought to work with the tools of Macroprudential Policies in order to maintain financial stability, and thereby economic Stability.

Macroprudential tools can be used as precautionary indicators to avoid shocks, and especially avoiding financial crises.

Within this context, the importance of examining the potential impact of Macroprudential tools on Credit Variables in the Egyptian financial system has appeared, for the objective of avoiding systemic risks, and thereby increasing systemic resilience and curbing excesses in the credit supply for achieving financial stability, without neglecting the great importance of complementarity between Macroprudential Policy and Monetary Policy for reaching the desired goal.

Accordingly, the necessity of the analysis has required the preparation two VAR Models followed by two VECM Models, in order to ensure the possibility of the presence of significant long run relationship between Macroprudential tools and credit indicators.