Prediction Model of Interval Grey Numbers with a Real Parameter and Its Application

الملخص EN

Grey prediction models have become common methods which are widely employed to solve the problems with “small examples and poor information.” However, modeling objects of existing grey prediction models are limited to the homogenous data sequences which only contain the same data type.

This paper studies the methodology of building prediction models of interval grey numbers that are grey heterogeneous data sequence, with a real parameter.

Firstly, the position of the real parameter in an interval grey number sequence is discussed, and the real number is expanded into an interval grey number by adopting the method of grey generation.

On this basis, a prediction model of interval grey number with a real parameter is deduced and built.

Finally, this novel model is successfully applied to forecast the concentration of organic pollutant DDT in the atmosphere.

The analysis and research results in this paper extend the object of grey prediction from homogenous data sequence to grey heterogeneous data sequence.

Those research findings are of positive significance in terms of enriching and improving the theory system of grey prediction models.