Bifurcation Analysis in Models for Vector-Borne Diseases with Logistic Growth

الملخص EN

We establish and study vector-borne models with logistic and exponential growth of vector and host populations, respectively.

We discuss and analyses the existence and stability of equilibria.

The model has backward bifurcation and may have no, one, or two positive equilibria when the basic reproduction number R 0 is less than one and one, two, or three endemic equilibria when R 0 is greater than one under different conditions.

Furthermore, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium is stable if R 0 is less than 1, it is unstable otherwise.

At last, by numerical simulation, we find rich dynamical behaviors in the model.

By taking the natural death rate of host population as a bifurcation parameter, we find that the system may undergo a backward bifurcation, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, and cusp bifurcation with the saturation parameter varying.

The natural death rate of host population is a crucial parameter.

If the natural death rate is higher, then the host population and the disease will die out.

If it is smaller, then the host and vector population will coexist.

If it is middle, the period solution will occur.

Thus, with the parameter varying, the disease will spread, occur periodically, and finally become extinct.