Hydrologic Variations and Stochastic Modeling of Runoff in Zoige Wetland in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

الملخص EN

Hydrological time series data (1988–2008) of the Hei River, the main water source to Zoige wetland in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau, were investigated.

Results showed that the runoff distribution of Hei River varies with the relative change in amplitude ( C m = 15.9 ) and the absolute change in amplitude ( Δ Q = 37.1 m3/s) during the year.

There was a significant decreasing trend since 1988 with annual runoff of 20.0 m3/s (1988–1994), 19.0 m3/s (1995–2000), and 15.2 m3/s (2001–2008).

There were double peaks in runoff during the water year: the highest peak in the period of 1988–2000 occurred in July while in the period of 2001–2008 it occurred in October.

Shifting peak flow means less water quantity in wetland during growing season.

Nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive method was used to predict daily runoff of the Hei River.

Model results show that it was fitted with 94.23% of R 2 for daily time series, which can provide a basis for the development and utilization of regional water resources.