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Short-Term Bus Passenger Demand Prediction Based on Time Series Model and Interactive Multiple Model Approach
المؤلفون المشاركون
المصدر
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
العدد
المجلد 2015، العدد 2015 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2015)، ص ص. 1-11، 11ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2015-04-21
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
11
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Although bus passenger demand prediction has attracted increased attention during recent years, limited research has been conducted in the context of short-term passenger demand forecasting.
This paper proposes an interactive multiple model (IMM) filter algorithm-based model to predict short-term passenger demand.
After aggregated in 15 min interval, passenger demand data collected from a busy bus route over four months were used to generate time series.
Considering that passenger demand exhibits various characteristics in different time scales, three time series were developed, named weekly, daily, and 15 min time series.
After the correlation, periodicity, and stationarity analyses, time series models were constructed.
Particularly, the heteroscedasticity of time series was explored to achieve better prediction performance.
Finally, IMM filter algorithm was applied to combine individual forecasting models with dynamically predicted passenger demand for next interval.
Different error indices were adopted for the analyses of individual and hybrid models.
The performance comparison indicates that hybrid model forecasts are superior to individual ones in accuracy.
Findings of this study are of theoretical and practical significance in bus scheduling.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Xue, Rui& Sun, Jian& Chen, Shukai. 2015. Short-Term Bus Passenger Demand Prediction Based on Time Series Model and Interactive Multiple Model Approach. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1060728
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Xue, Rui…[et al.]. Short-Term Bus Passenger Demand Prediction Based on Time Series Model and Interactive Multiple Model Approach. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2015 (2015), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1060728
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Xue, Rui& Sun, Jian& Chen, Shukai. Short-Term Bus Passenger Demand Prediction Based on Time Series Model and Interactive Multiple Model Approach. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2015. Vol. 2015, no. 2015, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1060728
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1060728
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
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تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر
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