التوجيه الاقتصادي للموارد المائية في الزراعة المصرية في ضوء أزمة سد النهضة

الملخص EN

The study, using linear multi-objective programming, reached three scenarios according to the periods of filling the reservoir.

These scenarios have shown that there are many negative effects of the Renaissance Dam on Egypt.

Such as: Reducing Egypt's water share from about 55.5 billion m3 to about 49.95 billion m3 according to the first scenario, or about 46.25 billion m3 according to the second scenario, or about 36.75 billion m3 according to the third scenario.

Reducing the level of the River Nile and the consequent reduction in water quantities and quality, and Egypt's inability to provide the needs of the various sectors.

Decreasing the available Egyptian water resources from about 80 billion m3 to about 74.42 billion m3 according to the first scenario, or about 70.75 billion m3 according to the second scenario, or about 61.25billion m3 according to the third scenario.

And the consequence of it is the decrease in per capita water resources and the entry of Egypt to the stage of water poverty, if it is considered that the population is 100 million people, then the per capita share of Egyptian water resources is about 744 m 3 according to the first scenario, or about 707 m 3 according to the second scenario, or about 612 m 3 according to the third scenario.

Decrease in the amount of water used for agriculture from about 61.4 billion m3 to about 57.14 billion m3 with a deficit of about 4.26 billion m3 according to the first scenario, or about 54.3 billion m3 with a deficit of about 7.1 billion m3 according to the second scenario And about 47 billion m3 with a deficit of about 14.39 billion m3 according to the third scenario, which results in increasing the burden on the state to provide the investments required to reuse wastewater for use in irrigation of agricultural lands and convert the surface irrigation system to developed irrigation.

Crop area decrease by 645 thousand acre, or 1.55 million acre, or 3,89 million acre according to the scenario followed, and the decrease in the areas of most crops for crop composition, especially in the third scenario, which results in a decrease in the self-sufficiency ratio of cereals, sugar, vegetables, oilseed and fiber crops as a result To increase the gap between production and consumption, which threatens Egyptian food security.

Increase in the quantity and value of food imports and fodder to fill the deficit as a result of the expected decrease in crop areas according to the programming models used and the decrease in exports due to the expected decrease in the area of export crops and the consequent deficit in foreign exchange, which negatively affects the Egyptian trade balance.

The high rate of unemployment as a result of the disruption of about 271 thousand workers or 602 thousand workers or 1245 thousand workers according to the scenario followed due to the decrease in the cultivated area as a result of not being cultivated and the impact of industries dependent on agriculture