Model for Estimation Urban Transportation Supply-Demand Ratio

الملخص EN

The paper establishes an estimation model of urban transportation supply-demand ratio (TSDR) to quantitatively describe the conditions of an urban transport system and to support a theoretical basis for transport policy-making.

This TSDR estimation model is supported by the system dynamic principle and the VENSIM (an application that simulates the real system).

It was accomplished by long-term observation of eight cities’ transport conditions and by analyzing the estimated results of TSDR from fifteen sets of refined data.

The estimated results indicate that an urban TSDR can be classified into four grades representing four transport conditions: “scarce supply,” “short supply,” “supply-demand balance,” and “excess supply.” These results imply that transport policies or measures can be quantified to facilitate the process of ordering and screening them.