Research and Application of a New Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization: A Case Study of Shandong Wind Farm in China

الملخص EN

With the increasing depletion of fossil fuel and serious destruction of environment, wind power, as a kind of clean and renewable resource, is more and more connected to the power system and plays a crucial role in power dispatch of hybrid system.

Thus, it is necessary to forecast wind speed accurately for the operation of wind farm in hybrid system.

In this paper, we propose a hybrid model called EEMD-GA-FAC/SAC to forecast wind speed.

First, the Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) can be applied to eliminate the noise of the original data.

After data preprocessing, first-order adaptive coefficient forecasting method (FAC) or second-order adaptive coefficient forecasting method (SAC) can be employed to do forecast.

It is significant to select optimal parameters for an effective model.

Thus, genetic algorithm (GA) is used to determine parameter of the hybrid model.

In order to verify the validity of the proposed model, every ten-minute wind speed data from three observation sites in Shandong Peninsula of China and several error evaluation criteria can be collected.

Through comparing with traditional BP, ARIMA, FAC, and SAC model, the experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model EEMD-GA-FAC/SAC has the best forecasting performance.