The forecasting of fish production, imports and exportswith the analysis of domestic consumption and expected self-sufficiency ratio during the period 2017-2030 in Saudi Arabia : application of VARXmodel

الملخص EN

The main purpose of this research is to use augmented vector autoregressive model to forecast the production of fish, imports and exports in order to compute the expected domestic consumption and analyze the self-sufficiency ratio that expected to occur during period (2017-2030).

According to (IC) the appropriate empirical model of these group was VARX(2) model with constant and quadratic trend.

From the results of conditional lest squares estimates, the statistical tests proved that the linear trend terms as well quadratic improved the predictive ability of the model.

Also the quantity of both production, imports and exports lagged one and two period has significant effect, and their addition improves the predictive ability of the model.

The prices of both imports and exports in their logarithmic form have a significant effect and improvement predictive ability of the model.

From results of prediction, quantity consumption as well self – sufficiency ratio was computed, and the results showed that self-sufficiency ratio will decrease with 2.4% annual growth rate.

The market gap will be positive and tend to narrow.

the research recommended that the interest in establishing of the specialized training institutes, Supplying the incentives that encourage young people to fish, improving the factors of fish production and supplying the local production of fish at appropriate prices to consumers.