تأثير الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر على الصادرات المصرية في الأجلين القصير والطويل باستخدام نموذج (ARDL)‎

الملخص EN

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is an important means of encouraging export of host countries.

by training the local workforce and developing technical and managerial skills, it helps raise the efficiency and productivity of factors and thus the competitive strength in the international market.

in addition, by facilitating access to large international markets, foreign direct investment makes a significant positive contribution to host country exports.

however, this is true if foreign direct investment comes for efficiency reasons and not for the domestic market.

therefore, this research aims to determine the effect of foreign direct investment on Egyptian exports in the short and long term for the period 1977-2018.

using the ARDL model, the most important results of the research were: first, there is a significant and positive impact of foreign direct investment on Egyptian exports in the short term.

second, there is a positive and moral effect for all model variables (real exchange rate, gross domestic product, domestic savings, gross fixed capital formation, industry added value).

third, there is no significant effect of foreign direct investment on Egyptian exports in the long term.

therefore, the Egyptian government must seek to shift from the manufacturing strategy to replace imports to the manufacturing strategy to encourage exports, so that the positive impact of foreign direct investment on exports occurs, as these companies can increase exports by benefiting from common markets, customs unions and free zones in developing countries.