قياس و تحليل أثر تقلبات أسعار النفط الخام في الفجوة الخارجية لعينة مختارة من الدول الريعية النفطية للفترة (1990-2014)‎

الملخص EN

This research aims to determine the effect of fluctuations in the prices of crude oil on the external gap of a sample of oil rent countries.

The research relied on quantitative decomposition to describe the nature of the relationship between variables by using panel data (Eviews 10), (STATA 14.0) programs.

It has applied three models of panel data which includes pooled regression model, fixed effects model and random effects model with the use of unit root tests such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test (ADF) and Phillips-Perron test (pp) to find out the degree of stability of the variables over time.

Based on results of the stability tests, it has conducted the co-integration tests.

ARDL model was used because the variables are not of the same rank.

The research found a number of conclusions; the most important of which is that after the differentiation between the models of the banal shows that the model random effects are appropriate for this study.

The external gap in the oil rent countries are affected by fluctuations of crude oil prices.

It has also shown significance of the main independent variable oil prices for the variable gap.

The positive effect on the balance of payments, current account balance was the external gap to the sample countries.