Assessment of Meteorological Drought in Korea under Climate Change

الملخص EN

Drought has become one of the most important elements for water resources planning and management in Korea.

The objective of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of drought and change in the drought characteristics over time due to climate change.

For the spatial characterization of drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is calculated from the 45 observatories in Korea and the spatial distribution is also estimated based on the joint probability analysis using the copula method.

To analyze the effect of climate change, spatial distribution of drought in the future is analyzed using the SPI time series calculated from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios and HADGEM3-RA regional climate model.

The results show that the Youngsan River and the northwest of Nakdong River basins in Korea have nearly doubled drought amount compared to the present and are most vulnerable to drought in near future (2016 to 2039 years).