Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

المؤلفون المشاركون

Li, Zhijia
Ye, Jinyin
Shao, Yuehong

المصدر

Advances in Meteorology

العدد

المجلد 2016، العدد 2016 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2016)، ص ص. 1-9، 9ص.

الناشر

Hindawi Publishing Corporation

تاريخ النشر

2016-12-20

دولة النشر

مصر

عدد الصفحات

9

التخصصات الرئيسية

الفيزياء

الملخص EN

TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble) was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment).

It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system.

Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision.

In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX.

We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system.

The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events.

The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations.

However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems.

The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)

Ye, Jinyin& Shao, Yuehong& Li, Zhijia. 2016. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095710

نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)

Ye, Jinyin…[et al.]. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast. Advances in Meteorology No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095710

نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)

Ye, Jinyin& Shao, Yuehong& Li, Zhijia. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast. Advances in Meteorology. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1095710

نوع البيانات

مقالات

لغة النص

الإنجليزية

الملاحظات

Includes bibliographical references

رقم السجل

BIM-1095710