Forecasting Daily Volume and Acuity of Patients in the Emergency Department
المؤلفون المشاركون
Calegari, Rafael
Fogliatto, Flavio S.
Lucini, Filipe R.
Neyeloff, Jeruza
Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S.
Schaan, Beatriz D.
المصدر
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
العدد
المجلد 2016، العدد 2016 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2016)، ص ص. 1-8، 8ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2016-09-20
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
8
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
This study aimed at analyzing the performance of four forecasting models in predicting the demand for medical care in terms of daily visits in an emergency department (ED) that handles high complexity cases, testing the influence of climatic and calendrical factors on demand behavior.
We tested different mathematical models to forecast ED daily visits at Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA), which is a tertiary care teaching hospital located in Southern Brazil.
Model accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), considering forecasting horizons of 1, 7, 14, 21, and 30 days.
The demand time series was stratified according to patient classification using the Manchester Triage System’s (MTS) criteria.
Models tested were the simple seasonal exponential smoothing (SS), seasonal multiplicative Holt-Winters (SMHW), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), and multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average (MSARIMA).
Performance of models varied according to patient classification, such that SS was the best choice when all types of patients were jointly considered, and SARIMA was the most accurate for modeling demands of very urgent (VU) and urgent (U) patients.
The MSARIMA models taking into account climatic factors did not improve the performance of the SARIMA models, independent of patient classification.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Calegari, Rafael& Fogliatto, Flavio S.& Lucini, Filipe R.& Neyeloff, Jeruza& Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S.& Schaan, Beatriz D.. 2016. Forecasting Daily Volume and Acuity of Patients in the Emergency Department. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1100121
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Calegari, Rafael…[et al.]. Forecasting Daily Volume and Acuity of Patients in the Emergency Department. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1100121
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Calegari, Rafael& Fogliatto, Flavio S.& Lucini, Filipe R.& Neyeloff, Jeruza& Kuchenbecker, Ricardo S.& Schaan, Beatriz D.. Forecasting Daily Volume and Acuity of Patients in the Emergency Department. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-8.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1100121
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1100121
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر