Evaluation of Performance of Different Methods in Detecting Abrupt Climate Changes
المؤلفون المشاركون
Zhao, Chunyu
Cui, Yan
Zhou, Xiaoyu
Wang, Ying
المصدر
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
العدد
المجلد 2016، العدد 2016 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2016)، ص ص. 1-14، 14ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2016-05-05
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
14
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
We compared and evaluated the performance of five methods for detecting abrupt climate changes using a time series with artificially generated abrupt characteristics.
Next, we analyzed these methods using annual mean surface air temperature records from the Shenyang meteorological station.
Our results show that the moving t-test (MTT), Yamamoto (YAMA), and LePage (LP) methods can correctly and effectively detect abrupt changes in means, trends, and dynamic structure; however, they cannot detect changes in variability.
We note that the sample size of the subseries used in these tests can affect their results.
When the sample size of the subseries ranges from one-quarter to three-quarters of the jump scale, these methods can effectively detect abrupt changes; they perform best when the sample size is one-half of the jump scale.
The Cramer method can detect abrupt changes in the mean and trend of a series but not changes in variability or dynamic structure.
Finally, we found that the Mann-Kendall test could not detect any type of abrupt change.
We found no difference in the results of any of the methods following removal of the mean, creation of an anomaly series, or normalization.
However, detrending and study period selection affected the results of the Cramer and Mann-Kendall methods; in the latter case, they could lead to a completely different result.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Zhao, Chunyu& Cui, Yan& Zhou, Xiaoyu& Wang, Ying. 2016. Evaluation of Performance of Different Methods in Detecting Abrupt Climate Changes. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society،Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103505
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Zhao, Chunyu…[et al.]. Evaluation of Performance of Different Methods in Detecting Abrupt Climate Changes. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society No. 2016 (2016), pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103505
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Zhao, Chunyu& Cui, Yan& Zhou, Xiaoyu& Wang, Ying. Evaluation of Performance of Different Methods in Detecting Abrupt Climate Changes. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society. 2016. Vol. 2016, no. 2016, pp.1-14.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1103505
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1103505
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر