استعمال نموذج الانحدار الذاتي و الأوساط المتحركة المتكامل (ARIMA)‎ للتنبؤ بإنتاج التمور في العراق

الملخص EN

Date production is representing in many countries of the world, especially in Iraq, a large part of the national economy.

Previously, Iraq is at forefront of countries in exporting the dates to the world.

But, recently, his production of dates is decreasing significantly as a result of the known conditions in the country (e.g., wars and crises), which are changing the country to an importing country of dates; consequently the economy losses of an important support to its main pillars.

The research aims to use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the production of dates in Iraq for the period 2019-2025 based on a time series of dates production in Iraq, including the period 1980-2018.

Statistical methods were used to study the characteristics of the time series where there was a clear fluctuation in the time series with a decreasing pattern.

The results of statistical analysis, showed that the most important and appropriate model for predicting the production of dates is the model of ARIMA (2,2,0) from a set of models proposed because it has the lowest value of AIC and BIC criteria and it has characteristics of white noise.

This model was used to predict date production for the period 2019-2025.