A Novel Hybrid Method for Short-Term Power Load Forecasting

الملخص EN

Influenced by many uncertain and random factors, nonstationary, nonlinearity, and time-variety appear in power load series, which is difficult to forecast accurately.

Aiming at locating these issues of power load forecasting, an innovative hybrid method is proposed to forecast power load in this paper.

Firstly, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is used to decompose the power load series into a series of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual term.

Secondly, genetic algorithm (GA) is then applied to determine the best weights of each IMF and the residual term named ensemble empirical mode decomposition based on weight (WEEMD).

Thirdly, least square support vector machine (LSSVM) and nonparametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (NPGARCH) are employed to forecast the subseries, respectively, based on the characteristics of power load series.

Finally, the forecasted power load of each component is summed as the final forecasted result of power load.

Compared with other methods, the forecasting results of this proposed model applied to the electricity market of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) indicate that the proposed model outperforms other models.