An Improved Artificial Colony Algorithm Model for Forecasting Chinese Electricity Consumption and Analyzing Effect Mechanism

الملخص EN

Electricity consumption forecast is perceived to be a growing hot topic in such a situation that China’s economy has entered a period of new normal and the demand of electric power has slowed down.

Therefore, exploring Chinese electricity consumption influence mechanism and forecasting electricity consumption are crucial to formulate electrical energy plan scientifically and guarantee the sustainable economic and social development.

Research has identified medium and long term electricity consumption forecast as a difficult study influenced by various factors.

This paper proposed an improved Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm which combined with multivariate linear regression (MLR) for exploring the influencing mechanism of various factors on Chinese electricity consumption and forecasting electricity consumption in the future.

The results indicated that the improved ABC algorithm in view of the various factors is superior to traditional models just considering unilateralism in accuracy and persuasion.

The overall findings cast light on this model which provides a new scientific and effective way to forecast the medium and long term electricity consumption.