Research on a Risk Assessment Method considering Risk Association

الملخص EN

Regarding risk assessment problems with multiple associated risks, a risk assessment method (RAM) is proposed in this paper.

According to the risk-associated assessment information offered by expert panel, a comprehensive associated matrix is constructed to identify the influence relationship among risks so as to determine the hierarchical structure of risks.

Then, based on the determined divided or undivided risk hierarchical structure as well as the possibility and loss of risks provided by expert panel, each value at risk (VAR) is calculated through knowledge related to probability theory.

Finally, the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method are demonstrated through a calculating case.