3Es System Optimization under Uncertainty Using Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm: A Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming Model

الملخص EN

Harmonious development of 3Es (economy-energy-environment) system is the key to realize regional sustainable development.

The structure and components of 3Es system are analyzed.

Based on the analysis of causality diagram, GDP and industrial structure are selected as the target parameters of economy subsystem, energy consumption intensity is selected as the target parameter of energy subsystem, and the emissions of COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO2, and NOX and CO2 emission intensity are selected as the target parameters of environment system.

Fixed assets investment of three industries, total energy consumption, and investment in environmental pollution control are selected as the decision variables.

By regarding the parameters of 3Es system optimization as fuzzy numbers, a fuzzy chance-constrained goal programming (FCCGP) model is constructed, and a hybrid intelligent algorithm including fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm is proposed for solving it.

The results of empirical analysis on Shandong province of China show that the FCCGP model can reflect the inherent relationship and evolution law of 3Es system and provide the effective decision-making support for 3Es system optimization.