GPS Radio Occultation Data Assimilation in the AREM Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Model for Flood Forecasts

الملخص EN

Based on the Backward Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (Backward-4DVar) system with the Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model (AREM), which is capable of assimilating radio occultation data, a heavy rainfall case study is performed using GPS radio occultation (GPS RO) data and routine GTS data on July 5, 2007.

The case study results indicate that the use of radio occultation data after quality control can improve the quality of the analysis to be similar to that of the observations and, thus, have a positive effect when improving 24-hour rainfall forecasts.

Batch tests for 119 days from May to August during the flood season in 2009 show that only the use of GPS RO data can make positive improvements in both 24-hour and 48-hour regional rainfall forecasts and obtain a better B score for 24-hour forecasts and better TS score for 48-hour forecasts.

When using radio occultation refractivity data and conventional radiosonde data, the results indicate that radio occultation refractivity data can achieve a better performance for 48-hour forecasts of light rain and heavy rain.