Climate Change Indicators and Spatiotemporal Shift in Monsoon Patterns in Pakistan

الملخص EN

Monsoon rainfall is the principle source of fresh water essential for agricultural practices and human sustenance in the Indian subcontinent during summer.

This study is primarily designed to analyse the extent of rainfall and temperature variations in Pakistan over the northern monsoon belt by using satellite and ground-based observations.

The satellite gridded data for rainfall are acquired from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) along with rainfall and temperature data from 15 ground stations of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).

Data were analysed to identify changes in climatic parameters and spatiotemporal shift in monsoon precipitation in Pakistan.

Analysis shows that there is significant correlation between TRMM and PMD datasets.

Decrease in monsoon rainfall is observed during the last two decades.

A more pronounced decrease is observed in monsoon rainfall during the years 2010–2017, i.e., 17.58 mm/year accompanied by 0.18°C increase in temperature.

A southward spatial shift in monsoon rainfall occurrence (rainfall ≥2.5 mm/day) is observed while an eastward shift in moderate to heavy monsoon rainfall is identified.

This study may be helpful for an agricultural country like Pakistan which is heavily dependent on monsoon rainfalls for assessing the impacts of changing monsoon season and to adapt towards changing climate.