Spatiotemporal Exploration and Hazard Mapping of Tropical Cyclones along the Coastline of China

الملخص EN

Spatiotemporal patterns are one of the greatest interests and provide valuable insights into chronological events occurring in space.

A tropical cyclone (TC) track is defined as a sequence of successive points, and several different types of analyses are performed to explore the temporal and spatial patterns of the TCs in the Northwest Pacific and along the coastline of China during 1949–2014.

Results show that (1) the number of TCs is getting more frequent from April to August and less frequent from August to October with the peak occurring in August almost every year; (2) the mean of the sizes of the annual temporal clusters during 1949–2014 is 52.5 (days), the standard deviation is 17.0 (days), and the average starting point is the 210.5th day; (3) the spatial clusters are located in two areas: the boundary of Guangxi and Guangdong provinces and the boundary of Fujian and Zhejiang provinces; and (4) the within-strata variance is less than the between-strata variance, which implies the locational and seasonal factors are the potential determinants of the heterogeneity of the TCs.

Furthermore, several maps representing the hazards of TCs are produced.

According to the resultant maps, 12 coastal prefectures (Zhanjiang, Maoming, Fuzhou, Huizhou, Yangjiang, Qinzhou, Ningde, Quanzhou, Jiangmen, Nanning, Zhangzhou, and Hangzhou) have return periods of less than two years, and the two island provinces of Hainan and Taiwan are visited by TCs the most.

Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, and Zhejiang provinces in particular suffered severely from the destructive TCs.