Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in High-Risk Regions
المؤلفون المشاركون
Zhang, Qiang
Wu, Bin
Wang, Zhenhua
المصدر
العدد
المجلد 2019، العدد 2019 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2019)، ص ص. 1-9، 9ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2019-05-22
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
9
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Objective.
This study constructs, calibrates, and verifies a mathematical simulation model designed to project the natural history of ESCC and is intended to serve as a platform for testing the benefits and cost-effectiveness of primary and secondary ESCC prevention alternatives.
Methods.
The mathematical model illustrates the natural history of ESCC as a sequence of transitions among health states, including the primary health states (e.g., normal mucosa, precancerous lesions, and undetected and detected cancer).
Using established calibration approaches, the parameter sets related to progression rates between health states were optimized to lead the model outputs to match the observed data (specifically, the prevalence of precancerous lesions and incidence of ESCC from the published literature in Chinese high-risk regions).
As illustrative examples of clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively simulate the potential benefit of two reported ESCC screening programs.
Results.
Nearly 1,000 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets.
Model outcomes had sufficient calibration fit to the calibration targets.
Additionally, the verification analyses showed reasonable external consistency between the model-predicted effectiveness of ESCC screening and the reported data from clinical trials.
Conclusions.
This parameterized mathematical model offers a tool for future research investigating benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness related to ESCC prevention and treatment.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Wang, Zhenhua& Zhang, Qiang& Wu, Bin. 2019. Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in High-Risk Regions. BioMed Research International،Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1124059
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Wang, Zhenhua…[et al.]. Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in High-Risk Regions. BioMed Research International No. 2019 (2019), pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1124059
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Wang, Zhenhua& Zhang, Qiang& Wu, Bin. Development of an Empirically Calibrated Model of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in High-Risk Regions. BioMed Research International. 2019. Vol. 2019, no. 2019, pp.1-9.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1124059
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1124059
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر