Meteorological Analysis of Floods in Ghana

الملخص EN

The first episodes of floods caused by heavy rainfall during the major rainy season in 2018 occurred in Accra (5.6°N and 0.17°W), a coastal town, and Kumasi (6.72°N and 1.6°W) in the forest region on the 18th and 28th of June, respectively.

We applied the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate and examine the meteorological dynamics, which resulted in the extreme rainfall and floods that caused 14 deaths, 34076 people being displaced with damaged properties, and economic loss estimated at $168,289 for the two cities according to the National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO).

The slow-moving thunderstorms lasted for about 8 hours due to the weak African Easterly Wave (AEW) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ).

Results from the analysis showed that surface pressures were low with significant amount of moisture influx aiding the thunderstorms intensification, which produced 90.1 mm and 114.6 mm of rainfall over Accra and Kumasi, respectively.

We compared the rainfall amount from this event to the historical rainfall data to investigate possible changes in rainfall intensities over time.

A time series of annual daily maximum rainfall (ADMR) showed an increasing trend with a slope of 0.45 over Accra and a decreasing trend and a slope of –0.07 over Kumasi.

The 95th percentile frequencies of extreme rainfall with thresholds of 45.10 mm and 42.16 mm were analyzed for Accra and Kumasi, respectively, based on the normal distribution of rainfall.

Accra showed fewer days with more heavy rainfall, while Kumasi showed more days with less heavy rainfalls.