Long-Term Rainfall Trends and Future Projections over Xijiang River Basin, China
المؤلفون المشاركون
Chen, Li-hua
Touseef, Muhammad
Yang, Kaipeng
Chen, Yunyao
المصدر
العدد
المجلد 2020، العدد 2020 (31 ديسمبر/كانون الأول 2020)، ص ص. 1-18، 18ص.
الناشر
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
تاريخ النشر
2020-03-12
دولة النشر
مصر
عدد الصفحات
18
التخصصات الرئيسية
الملخص EN
Precipitation trend detection is vital for water resources development and decision support systems.
This study predicts the climate change impacts on long-term precipitation trends.
It deals with the analysis of observed historical (1960–2010) and arithmetic mean method in assembling precipitation from CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) datasets for a future period (2020–2099) under four emission scenarios.
Daily precipitation data of 32 weather stations in the Xijiang River Basin were provided by National Meteorological Information Centre (NMIC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Global Climate Models (GCMs) with all four emission scenarios statistically downscaled using Bias Correction Special Disaggregation (BCSD) and applied for bias correction via Climate Change Toolkit (CCT).
Nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was applied for statistical significance trend analysis while the magnitude of the trends was determined by nonparametric Sen’s estimator method on a monthly scale to detect monotonic trends in annual and seasonal precipitation time series.
The results showed a declined trend was observed for the past 50 years over the basin with negative values of MK test (Z) and Sen’s slope Q.
Historical GCMs precipitation detected decreasing trends except for NoerESM1-M which observed slightly increasing trends.
The results are further validated by historical precipitation recorded by the Climate Research Unit (CRU-TS-3.1).
The future scenarios will likely be positive trends for annual rainfall.
Significant positive trends were observed in monsoon and winter seasons while premonsoon and postmonsoon seasons will likely be slightly downward trends.
The 2040s will likely observe the lowest increase of 6.6% while the 2050s will observe the highest increase of 11.5% over the 21st century under future scenarios.
However, due to the uncertainties in CMIP5, the future precipitation projections should be interpreted with caution.
Thus, it could be concluded that the trend of change in precipitation around the Xijiang River Basin is on the increase under future scenarios.
The results can be valuable to water resources and agriculture management policies, as well as the approach for managing floods and droughts under the perspective of global climate change.
نمط استشهاد جمعية علماء النفس الأمريكية (APA)
Touseef, Muhammad& Chen, Li-hua& Yang, Kaipeng& Chen, Yunyao. 2020. Long-Term Rainfall Trends and Future Projections over Xijiang River Basin, China. Advances in Meteorology،Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1126960
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الأمريكية للغات الحديثة (MLA)
Touseef, Muhammad…[et al.]. Long-Term Rainfall Trends and Future Projections over Xijiang River Basin, China. Advances in Meteorology No. 2020 (2020), pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1126960
نمط استشهاد الجمعية الطبية الأمريكية (AMA)
Touseef, Muhammad& Chen, Li-hua& Yang, Kaipeng& Chen, Yunyao. Long-Term Rainfall Trends and Future Projections over Xijiang River Basin, China. Advances in Meteorology. 2020. Vol. 2020, no. 2020, pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1126960
نوع البيانات
مقالات
لغة النص
الإنجليزية
الملاحظات
Includes bibliographical references
رقم السجل
BIM-1126960
قاعدة معامل التأثير والاستشهادات المرجعية العربي "ارسيف Arcif"
أضخم قاعدة بيانات عربية للاستشهادات المرجعية للمجلات العلمية المحكمة الصادرة في العالم العربي
تقوم هذه الخدمة بالتحقق من التشابه أو الانتحال في الأبحاث والمقالات العلمية والأطروحات الجامعية والكتب والأبحاث باللغة العربية، وتحديد درجة التشابه أو أصالة الأعمال البحثية وحماية ملكيتها الفكرية. تعرف اكثر