The Impact of Length-Scale Variation When Diagnosing the Standard Deviations of Background Error in a 4D-Var System and Filtering Method Investigation

الملخص EN

The four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) method has been widely employed as an operational scheme in mainstream numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers.

In addition to the ensemble data assimilation method, the randomization technique is still used to diagnose the standard deviations of background error in variational data assimilation (VAR) systems; however, such randomization techniques induce sampling noise, which may contaminate the quality of the standard deviations.

First, this paper studies the properties of the sampling noise induced by the randomization technique.

The results show that the sampling noise is on a small scale displaying high-frequency oscillations around the estimate compared with the estimate and this difference motivates the use of filtering techniques to eliminate the sampling noise effects.

The characteristics of the standard deviation field of the control variables are also investigated, and the standard deviation fields of different model parameters have different scales and vary with the vertical model levels.

To eliminate such sampling noise, the spectral filtering method used widely in the operational system and a modified spatial averaging approach are investigated.

Although both methods have splendid performance in eliminating sampling noise, the spatial averaging approach is more efficient and easier to implement in operational systems.

In addition, the optimal filtered results from the spatial averaging approach are dependent on model parameters and vertical levels, which is consistent with the variation in the standard deviation field.

Finally, the spatial averaging approach is tested on the operational system at the global scale based on the YH4DVAR and the global NWP system, and the results indicate that the spatial averaging approach has positive effects on both analysis and forecast quality.